Every guide to Los Cabos says the weather is perfect. It mostly is. That is also why the advice is useless: if every month is lovely, nothing helps you choose one.
So we went and got the numbers. What follows comes from eleven years of daily observations, 2015 through 2025, averaged by month — not from a brochure. Sea temperatures are four years of daily readings off Cabo San Lucas.
The Los Cabos year
| Month | Average high | Average low | Days with rain | Sea |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 25°C / 78°F | 15°C / 59°F | 1 | 23°C / 73°F |
| February | 26°C / 79°F | 16°C / 61°F | 1 | 21°C / 70°F |
| March | 28°C / 82°F | 17°C / 63°F | 1 | 21°C / 70°F |
| April | 30°C / 86°F | 19°C / 67°F | 0 | 22°C / 72°F |
| May | 32°C / 89°F | 21°C / 70°F | 0 | 24°C / 75°F |
| June | 33°C / 91°F | 24°C / 75°F | 2 | 26°C / 78°F |
| July | 33°C / 92°F | 26°C / 79°F | 7 | 29°C / 84°F |
| August | 32°C / 89°F | 25°C / 78°F | 15 | 30°C / 87°F |
| September | 31°C / 87°F | 24°C / 76°F | 14 | 30°C / 86°F |
| October | 31°C / 88°F | 23°C / 73°F | 5 | 30°C / 85°F |
| November | 29°C / 84°F | 20°C / 67°F | 2 | 27°C / 81°F |
| December | 26°C / 79°F | 17°C / 62°F | 1 | 26°C / 78°F |
“Days with rain” counts days with at least a millimetre — enough to notice, not a passing cloud.
The trade nobody mentions
Read the last two columns together and the whole calendar snaps into focus.
The months with the best weather have the coldest sea. February and March are glorious on land — high twenties, essentially no rain — and the water sits at 21°C, about 70°F. That is swimmable for some people and genuinely cold for most. It is also exactly when the whales are here.
The months with the warmest sea are hurricane season. August, September and October give you water at 30°C, warm as a bath, and the best snorkelling and diving of the year. They are also the wettest months on record here by a wide margin — August averages fifteen days of rain, September fourteen. Half the month.
You cannot have both. Every month in Los Cabos is a position on that trade, and knowing which one you are taking is most of the decision.
Month by month
January and February. The coolest air of the year and the reason many people come: whale season is officially open, the town is full, and the light is extraordinary. Bring something with sleeves for the evening — a 15°C night surprises people who packed for a beach. The sea is at its coldest.
March. Our pick if you want one month. Warmer than February by a couple of degrees, still effectively dry, whales still passing, and the water beginning to climb. It is also spring break, which is a real consideration in Cabo San Lucas and almost none at all in San José or on the East Cape.
April. The driest month on record here: 0.3 mm of rain in an average month, and one rainy day every ten years. Thirty degrees, low twenties at night, the crowds thinning after Easter. If your priority is certainty about the weather, this is the month with the least to argue about.
May. Hot and dry, the sea warming through 24°C, and the last of the shoulder prices before summer. Hurricane season opens on 15 May on paper, but the peninsula rarely sees anything this early.
June. The heat arrives properly — 33°C days, nights that stop cooling down. Still dry. The water crosses into properly warm.
July. The hottest month, and the humidity turns on. Rain days jump from two to seven. The sea hits 29°C, which is when the diving gets very good.
August and September. The wet, hot, quiet heart of the year. Fifteen and fourteen rainy days, the peak of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, and by some distance the cheapest time to be here. Plenty of residents call it their favourite: empty restaurants, warm water, dramatic skies. It is a real option, taken with open eyes and travel insurance, and not one to book for a wedding.
October. The recovery month, and an underrated one. Rain drops from fourteen days to five, the sea is still at 30°C, the air is still summer-warm, and the crowds have not returned. If you want warm water without August, this is where it lives.
November. Everything improves at once. Dry again, high twenties, the water still at a very swimmable 27°C, and the season not yet at full price. Arguably the best all-round month of the twelve.
December. Cooler and dry, whale season opens on the fifteenth, and the last two weeks are the busiest and most expensive of the year by a distance.
The two seasons that frame everything
Whales: 15 December to 15 April, the official window set by SEMARNAT, with January and February the peak. If this is why you are coming, do not book the edges of it.
Hurricanes: 15 May to 30 November, with August and September the active months. Most seasons pass Los Cabos without a direct hit. Some do not, and the ones that do are remembered by name here. Treat it as a probability, not a promise, and buy the insurance.
So when should you come?
- For the weather, without argument: April, then November.
- For the whales: February, and book early.
- For the water: October — warm sea, most of the rain gone.
- For the price: August and September, and you will have the place nearly to yourself.
- For a wedding or anything that cannot be moved: November through May, and read our note on what actually decides how the day goes.
One last thing the table cannot tell you: none of these months feels the same in Cabo San Lucas as it does in San José or out on the East Cape. Where you stay changes the answer as much as when — which is its own decision.
